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Qualitative Forecasting Methods n These methods are used when historical data are scarce or not available at all. N They generally use expert opinion to predict future events subjectively n Advantage n useful when historical data either are not available or are scarce. For example, sales of new product, environment and technology over the long term. N Disadvantage n Subjective 5 Quantitative Forecasting Methods n These methods. The business forecasting considers the long term. It focuses on product lines. The aggregate forecasting considers the aggregated (in terms of products) demand for each of the 12 -24 coming months. The item forecasting is an estimation of the demand for each item in the coming weeks. The need for spares is also required for the MRP. Demand Forecasting. Types of Forecasting Techniques n Qualitative Forecasting Methods n Quantitative Forecasting Methods 4 Qualitative Forecasting Methods n These methods are used when historical data are scarce or not available at all. N They generally use expert opinion to predict future events subjectively n Advantage n useful when historical data either are. Chapter 13Chapter 13 Forecasting Forecasting. Why Forecasting?. How Do We Forecast? Qualitative approachQualitative approach zbased on experience, judgment, and knowledge Quantitative approach zbased on historical data and models zassume past patterns will continue into the future Forecasting Models 2. Univariate Forecasting Conclusions Objectives Strategies Objectives What is time series data? What do we want out of a forecast? Long-term or short-term? Broken down into different categories/time units? Do we want prediction intervals? Do we want to measure effect of X on Y? (scenario forecasting) What methods are out there to forecast/analyze. Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date.
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